Counterfactuals, Thought Experiments and Singular Causal Analysis in History

The differential effect of realistic and unrealistic counterfactual thinking on regret.

Research has established that realistic counterfactual thinking can determine the intensity and the content of people's affective reactions to decision outcomes and events. Not much is known, however, about the affective consequences of counterfactual thinking that is unrealistic (i.e., that does not correspond to the main causes of a negative outcome). In three experiments, we investigate the ...

Causal inference based on counterfactuals

BACKGROUND The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. DISCUSSION This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, ...

The logic of counterfactual analysis in case-study explanation.

In this paper, we develop a set-theoretic and possible worlds approach to counterfactual analysis in case-study explanation. Using this approach, we first consider four kinds of counterfactuals: necessary condition counterfactuals, SUIN condition counterfactuals, sufficient condition counterfactuals, and INUS condition counterfactuals. We explore the distinctive causal claims entailed in each, ...

ATTITUDES AND SOCIAL COGNITION Propensities and Counterfactuals: The Loser That Almost Won

Close Counterfactuals are alternatives to reality that "almost happened." A psychological analysis of close Counterfactuals offers insights into the underlying representation of causal episodes and the inherent uncertainty attributed to many causal systems. The perception and representation of causal episodes is organized around possible focal outcomes, evoking a schema of causal forces competi...

Counterfactuals, Causal Inference, and Historical Analysis